The Iraq Commission and the evidence of Professor Brendan O'Leary

The Foreign Policy Centre (FPC), in partnership with Britain's Channel 4, has facilitated a UK Iraq Commission- the British equivalent of the Us Iraq Study Group [Baker-Hamilton Commission] it is jointly chaired by three veteran British politicians. The commission have had hearings with 49 witnesses including two Representatives of Kurdistan Regional Government on June 2007.
The commission will examine all possible options for Britain's future role in Iraq. It will present its finding to Mr.Gorden Brown and leaders of political parties of UK in mid-July. The following is the transcript of Professor Brendan O'leary's evidence to the commission on Friday, June 15,2007
For further information see the source below
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Dialogue

Margaret Jay

Thank you very much for coming, good morning I'm Margaret Jay and I'm chairing this morning's meeting of the Iraq Commission and if I may briefly introduce my fellow commissioners who are with me here this morning, on my far left Stephen Twigg who's the Director of the Foreign Policy Centre, on my immediate left Professor Brian Brivati from Kingston University, on my right Lord Hannay, who was David Hannay was our Ambassador to the United Nations and on his right Sir Patrick Walker who is an ex-Director of MI5 and we're very grateful to you for coming and for you're very interesting memorandum that you've submitted to us, the title of which of you're memorandum is work for not against Iraq's constitution, quite a lot of the evidence that we've been given in previous session has suggested that a useful way forward would be to amend the 2005 constitution in order to repair some of the problem which seem to have arisen directly as a result of it, why are you so keen that particularly the UK government should be a firm advocate of the existing constitution?

Brendan O'Leary

I think the UK government should be a firm advocate of the existing constitution because it reflects the agreed will of four out of five of Iraq's voters and that the UK Government should support amendments to the constitution within the agreed process of the constitution. The trouble is in Washington and I think reluctantly in parts of the UK diplomatic officialdom there is a desire to overturn the substantial content of the constitution which for practical purposes means the federalist arrangements that were agreed. There is no difficulty in my view in working on matters that do need to be worked on in the constitution, namely the second chamber; the working of the supreme court, there is certainly room for flexibility on issues on de- Baathification. There are even possibilities of room, I think, for a collective presidency in the future rather than a single person presidency, these are well within the spirit and ambit of the general constitution but what I think is simply not negotiable is the fundamental federalist package and that touches on not only the formation of regions but the provisions on natural resources and future security arrangements, those three core things in my view are not capable of being renegotiated.

Margaret Jay

And do you think the existing constitution is sufficiently flexible to allow for the type of political reconciliation between the different sectarian groups which has been one of the obstacles to stable Government at the moment.

Brendan O'Leary

Yeah the constitution achieves something absolutely remarkable that is insufficiently noticed, it basically solves the Kurdish Arab national question for the first time in the history of Iraq no change to the constitution should destabilise that fundamental settlement. The second question you are implicitly erasing is about the internal Arab civil war that is the sectarian conflict, Kurds play no role in that conflict and indeed play a constructive role in trying to mediate it. In my view the constitution provides Sunni Arabs the opportunity for maximum self-Government in areas which there are a majority. The constitution allows them to have a full proportional share in federal institution should they choose to avail themselves of those opportunities. The constitution does not discriminate against their religion, it is endeavour or establish any particular version of Islam, it recognises Iraq's membership of the Arab league which is vital for the Sunni understanding of Iraq's historical formation. So it is completely wrong and erroneous to think that the constitution amounts to a programme against Sunni Arabs. There are other myths, I even heard one of those myths articulated today that the constitution basically deprives Sunni Arabs of access to natural resources because they're deprived of oil in their regions that's not true, there are oil fines in Anbar, very good prospects there and the constitution mandates the distribution of oil revenues across Iraq as a whole on a precapita basis from existing oil fields and the other parties are highly in agreement that the distribution from new oil fields should also go across Iraq as a whole. So I think if you appraise things carefully nothing in the constitution is detrimental to the core interests and preferences of reasonable Sunni Arabs.

Margaret Jay

Brian Brivati.

Brian Brivati

We had negative evidence on the constitution and some positive but both sets of kind of takes on it imply that there is a political impasse now and Ali Allawi yesterday mapped out a way we might get out of that which is to have a form of something like a 19th century congress where all the parties are brought together to make this constitution work, to work out to get the federal project back to the centre to work out which regions would exist and how that would work to use the existing clause to do that, clauses in the constitution to do that, and to underpin that kind of a settlement by bringing in the regional powers who support the different ethnic groups. Now that would entail, as you've implied a big shift in policy in Washington and a shift in London, now our job is to make recommendations to the British Government; if we were to get behind that kind of a project what likelihood of success do you think there would be for that sort of initiative? Or is there another kind of initiative which would get this federal project back into the forefront of Iraqi politics?

Brendan O'Leary

I think on honestly the prospects of that kind of proposal running within Iraq itself, within the elected Government, the federal Government are [as on totally] close to zero. It will sound like an effort on the part of outsiders to dictate Iraq's constitution; Iraq's constitution has already been negotiated. The parties who are in the federal Government are entirely willing to play a role in constructive international conferences dealing with such issues as refugees in which all the neighbouring states have an entirely legitimate interest but they certainly don't want their constitution to be re-negotiated by outsiders and to be re-negotiated by what they seem to regard as the electoral timetables in Washington and in the United Kingdom. So a 19 thCentury model of an imperial kind I think will go down very badly in deed, that does not mean to say there's no role for an international conference but whether of a Dayton style or any other kind, one that appears to have outsiders dictating Iraq's constitution in my view will not fly.

Brian Brivati

Ok so how then do we get, so we the international conference with restricted agenda, how then do we get the federal project back to the forefront?

Brendan O'Leary

I think there it would be very helpful if the United Kingdom Government and the US Government were to shift from their current signals and their current signals are to appear to support major revisions of the constitution which I think frankly are infeasible and if the United Kingdom along with the US, but preferably if the United Kingdom went alone first, were to shift towards recognising what the constitution means which includes a regionalisation of security then a whole series of practical recommendations fall into place. Once you start thinking about regionalisation of security that allows for the withdrawal of the coalition forces from a whole set of areas of Iraq which are functional, not functional in a way that you or I might like in a wonderful liberal democracy, but nevertheless functional and the coalition forces could be deployed to support security locally where that is required, the Kurdistan region security is already established, large parts of the south are stable and functioning. They could be focused instead of having a grand Iraq-wide strategy independently arrived at by outsiders,instead one should follow the security policy of the federal Government and the institutionalised elected governments.

Brian Brivati

So you do think it would be helpful if the British Government shifted,
if the new Prime Minister shifted his position publicly and said…

Brendan O'Leary

It would be…

Brian Brivati

…endorsed in the existing constitution…

Brendan O'Leary

It would be splendid to hear Prime Minister Brown respecting, reflecting and endorsing Iraq's constitution of 2005, he does not have to say it's a perfect document, no one says it's a perfect document there are procedures to revise that constitution they should be follow.

Margaret Jay

David Hannay.

David Hannay

The problem it seems to me about your prescription is that if you regionalise security policy as you're suggesting I can see why that should be very attractive to the Kurd's, I can see why it should be attractive to the Shiite and I can see why it would be extremely unattractive to the Sunni who in any case you wouldn't be regionalising at all because that's where the insurgency is, so it would look as if things have got worse for them, now I wonder if I could ask you….

Brendan O'Leary

To the contrary...

David Hannay

No no hang on…

Brendan O'Leary

No no I don't accept the premise….

David Hannay

Yeah OK could you just let me complete my question?

Brendan O'Leary
Certainly.

David Hannay

Assuming that the Sunni's might have that kind of view what of the elements that you've identified within the federal constitution the development, the organic development of the federal constitution could be put forward which would genuinely address some of the concerns of the Sunni's, even if those concerns are exaggerated what could they be?

Brendan O'Leary

Well first of all let me address the premise of the question you posed. Its not obvious to me that Sunni Arabs have a hostile attitude towards the regionalisation of security, in those governerats in which they have a majority, if they choose to take advantages of provisions in the constitution to convert those governerats into either individual regions or aggregate them to form their own region then they will be entitled legitimately to have their own security. In the interim of course the federal Government has the intuitive in security in those areas, so I think if federalism is properly articulated and properly explained to Sunni Arabs they have the opportunity to protect themselves, they of course have legitimate fears of sectarian placing and sectarian military behaviour against them, they don't talk generally in this way about the Kurds but they do have those fears about Shiite Arabs so regionalisation of security in their areas is of advantage to them in the long run. Now you asked me how can Sunni Arabs be persuaded to see the constitution as reflecting their interest, well they have to learn one thing there's no going back to the old order, the older rack in which they were the dominate community despite being a minority is over, the only way they can have that restored is through either a coo or a successful insurgency that needs to a new revolutionary elite, that's not going to happen. If they accept that position then they can see a whole range of opportunities in the existing institution environment, for example they are regularly reported at the moment to want to have more powers to go to the President because the next President is anticipated to be a Sunni Arab, I think it would be wise for other parties in Iraq to think about that proposal and indeed to think about institutionalising for long run the initial collective Presidency that was agreed in the interim arrangements that's a way of ensuring that each of the three major communities without mandating that they have to be from the three communities, that they each have a stake in the collective Presidency and that's a potential veto power against unreasonable developments. Sunni Arabs have a great deal to benefit from bargaining over the formation of the second chamber, if that second chamber protects the rights of governorates and regions and minorities including religious minorities within Islam, and Sunni Islam is a minority within the Islamic community in Iraq, that's an institution mechanism to where those collective interests can be protected. The organisation of the federal supreme court requires a two-thirds majority of the composition, for that to work effectively that requires the consent of both Iraqi national assembly to agree on its rules of operation and mode of Kurdistan and the Sunni Arabs, so these are intuition which will matter if Iraq's constitution unfolds as it could and these are
institutional opportunities for Sunni Arabs to play a constructive role, one can only hope that they will take advantage of them.

David Hannay

Yeah.

Margaret Jay

Patrick Walker.

Patrick Walker

You've answered one of my questions, but the other one is we've been told that some, well by some people, that they view the new constitution as a beginning of as it were an Islamist state and that the aim of people who want a secular state are not being fulfilled if you like, do you think this is a reasonable interpretation or do you think there is in fact a higher degree of as it were Islamist influence in the constitution than there was previously?

Brendan O'Leary

The United Kingdom has a Monarch who is the head of two established Churches, she's a theological schizophrenic, she's the Head of the Church of Scotland and the Head of the Church of England. Nevertheless there's extensive secularism in the political life of the United Kingdom, in the constitution of Iraq Islam is recognised as the official religion of all Iraqi's, but no version of Islam is establish, the constitution requires the jurisprudence and constitution of Iraq not to operated against the universally agreed tenants of Islam, those are remarkably few and when
you think about the extensive of that provision prevents any one version of Islam being dictated to against others. In addition the constitution federalises the protection of human rights and minority rights because the provisions on human rights and indeed the provisions on religion are not exclusive competences of the federal Government, therefore under Iraq's constitution they are subject to the supremacy of regional law that means that secular Kyrgyzstan will be able to keep its secular preferences going, by contrast if other areas opt for regions they will be able to allow religion to have greater influence over their public law and public programmes, you and I might not like that as liberals, or as secular people but those preferences will reflect local majority preferences. What is remarkable about Iraq is the agreement in other words to regionalise preferences over religion and it seems to me that that is an amicable and sensible way to go forward. Now as for women's rights those rights are formally protected in the federal constitution, those regions that respect the federal constriction in their own regions will ensure that women's rights will be reasonably protected. I think that the secular liberal Arab parties from whom you've heard representation do have legitimate concerns and their appropriate path is to make political arguments for their positions in Iraq.

Patrick Walker

What about the minority of religious groups? How will they be protected?

Brendan O'Leary

The minority religious groups are very well protected in Kurdistan I have reason to know because I've seen the drafts of the minorities in Kurdistan would be very well protected in Kurdistan's regional constitution. On the ground we know that Christian communities particularly in Baghdad have subject to gross and terrible treatment, but formally within the constitution the rights of non-Muslims are fully protected, there's full freedom for their particular communities, in addition there's a regular practise in Iraq of respecting both the marital rights on non-Muslims and their Churches and their Schooling institutions. In a moderately reasonable world I see no reason why this would not go forward.

Patrick Walker

Even in the south?

Brendan O'Leary

Even in the south.

Margaret Jay

Stephen Twigg.

Stephen Twigg

Implicitly I think you've answered the question but just for the record, an earlier witness suggested to us that the emerging Kurdish regional constitution will see the introduction of [Sharia] law in Kurdistan can you clarify that for us?

Brendan O'Leary

That is utterly absurd, I've seen no such draft, the draft Kurdistan constitution does not in any way institutionalise any version on the [Sharia]. The draft constitution of Kurdistan of course by virtue of Kurdistan's agreement to be part of Iraq recognises Iraq's constitution in which Islam is recognised as the official religion of Iraq, but in no other way does the draft constitution of Kurdistan implement anything resembling the [Sharia] and indeed secular people will find their rights better protected in Kurdistan than anywhere else in Iraq.

Stephen Twigg

Thank you.

Margaret Jay

Thank you I think that completes the questions that the Commission has wanted to put to you but you have said you would like to make a concluding statement.

Brendan O'Leary

Yes, one of the items on my memorandum on which I did not receive questions was Kirkuk, Kirkuk is a fundamentally important question its part of the agreement which is in the constitution that in my view settles the conflict between Arab nationalism and Kurdish nationalism,the Kirkuk agreement is of a special importance because its very easy to get the intricacies of the compromise wrong. Because the Kirkuk oil field is part of existing exploited fields it follows that under the constitution of Iraq that even if the Kirkuk governorate does vote to become part of Kurdistan, the oil revenues from Kirkuk governorate will go to Iraq as a whole, so it is false to suggest that the Kurds will simply absorb the oil revenues of Kirkuk oil field.
The negotiators of the constitution separately separated the questions of oil revenues from the territorial status of the Governorate. Secondly, the constitution makes an explicit timetabled commitment to resolving the status of Kirkuk by 2007, there is no provision in the constitution for delaying that referendum, I think it would be very wise to recommend that that referendum go ahead and the constructive way for this Commission to respond to the necessary difficulties and anxieties attached to that referendum is to show concern for the rights of the minorities in Kirkuk Governorate, the best way to address those questions in my view is to encourage the Kurdistan Government in its regional constitution, to make power sharing arrangements and minorities rights protection available within Kirkuk governorate in its constitution for the future. I think its very important that the Commission consider very carefully Turkey's alleged and actual interests in the region, Turkey has legitimate interests flowing from instability in Iraq, it does not however have legitimate interests in determining the internal regional governance boundaries of Iraq, its concerns for the Turkey men can be addressed in the way that I've just suggested and its concerns about the PKK should be met with frank and accurate statements of local circumstances. It is not true that the Kurdistan regional Government supports the platform of the PKK, it has never supported terrorism attacking civilians deliberately for political purposes and it argues that Turkey should seek a peaceful and democratic resolution its own local Kurdish questions. It would be, I think, very very dangerous if either Washington or London were to signal to Turkey that it is appropriate in any way for this Nato partner and possible future EU member to engage in an attack on the territory of a newly established democracy.

David Hannay

Could I just follow that up, I don't at all disagree with your view that it would be very unfortunate to put mildly, disastrous if Turkey became involved territorially in Iraq and I would personally think that it was highly unlikely that either the British or American Governments would give any encouragement to that whatsoever, quite the contrary all the evidence is to the opposite. But there is a legitimate Turkish concern about acting by the PKK in the boarder regions and I wonder whether you could throw some light on why it is that the Kurdish regional Government...

Brendan O'Leary

Kurdistan regional Government.

David Hannay

Kurdish and regional Government cannot give me solid and more credible guarantees about their territory not being used for any of the activities to the PKK than they done hither to.

Brendan O'Leary

Well I think they have given guarantees, they in no way endorse attacks by the PKK on Turkey using the Kurdistan regional Government's territory as its base. The PKK that exists in the KRG region is located in deeply inaccessible mountains, whereon Government, no military Government on earth has yet been able to dislodge any kind of guerrilla force, its not feasible in other words for there to be a successful assault on those guerrilla hideouts, unless the entire Turkish army were to be deployed in a massive siege operation throughout the whole of northern Kurdistan, this is not feasible and it would be a grossly and proper intervention in the affairs of the KRG, what the KRG wants to promote and what I think the United Kingdom Government should promote is a reasonable resolution of the Kurdish question inside Turkey itself, that obviously requires thinking in the way that the
United Kingdom has done imaginatively about how the bring in guerrilla organisations from the cold to settle for things short of what they ultimately aspire to, the United Kingdom has successfully negotiated with the leaders of the IRA, there is no, in my view, fundamental impendent to successful negation between Turkey and leaders of the PKK provided the PKK is prepared to announce a complete sensation of violence which it has shown willingness to do on previous occasions.

David Hannay

Well I if you would allow me to take issue with that the present Turkey Government has introduced a very large number of reforms which are indeed designed to meet the legitimate concerns of the population of Turkey of ethnic Kurdish origin, but those reforms have not been accepted by the PKK, which having been on ceasefire for a long time has reverted to military activities, some of which you yourself are recognising are undoubtedly taking place from safe havens in Kurdistan…

Brendan O'Leary

Safe safe safe haven…

David Hannay

…now there is a it is…

Brendan O'Leary

…is not a…

David Hannay

Honestly if you just let me...

Brendan O'Leary

Lord Hannay safe haven is not a term I'll allow to pass.

David Hannay

No no alright well you…

Brendan O'Leary

Because it implies that the

David Hannay

…you will allow what you like but I'm using it, all I'm saying is that you do not seem to be recognising the fact the PKK does not represent the vast majority of Kurds in Turkey and that the Turkish Government, the present Turkish Government has done a very great deal to meet the concerns of their Kurdish ethnic groups and that it is really very important and there I agree with you to avoid a situation where Turkey feels that it has no alternative but to intervene and it is very important that the Kurds of Iraq help the Turkish Government come to that right conclusion.

Brendan O'Leary

Lord Hannay under the constitution of Turkey it is not possible for a party with the title of Kurdistan or Kurdish to run for elected office, therefore neither you nor I can know the actual levels of support among the Kurdish population in south east Turkey in particular, for Kurdish nationalist parties, I suspect that if there were to be free elections in which a party could run under any label there would be significant support for some sections of the PKK, that I think would be regrettable but I don't doubt that the actual possibility that that would occur. The Turkish Government has shifted from its previous positions, it has improved on paper the rights on Kurds, it has some way to go. Now all that said in my view there is no question the KRG has no interest in destabilising Turkey it has absolutely no interest in encouraging intervention by much militarily superior neighbour on its soil, on the other hand it has its own rights to protect and it will insist on protection of those rights and that will not involve it in any support for terrorism beyond its boarders.

David Hannay

Thank you

Margaret Jay

Thank you very much and may I say how grateful we were for your previous memorandum because that enabled us to focus the discussion and gave us a great deal of background so thank you very much….

Brendan O'Leary

Thank you very much.

Margaret Jay

…Professor O'Leary.

Brendan O'Leary

Thank you.

Source:http://www.channel4.com/news/microsites/l/the_iraq_commission/video.html